After the introduction of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy, gold's status as a safe-haven asset has once again become prominent. The gold market is at a historic moment. The international gold price rose above US$3,200 per ounce for the first time, and the price of gold jewellery of many domestic brands exceeded the 1,000 yuan/gram mark, triggering further consumer attention to the gold market.
Domestic: one price per day
The continuous surge in gold prices has triggered heated discussions in the market, and related topics have frequently appeared on Weibo hot searches. On April 10, on the real-time gold price display screen of Beijing Caibai General Store, the price of pure gold jewelry has soared to 935 yuan / gram, hitting a new high in recent times.
"The price of gold is the same every day, yesterday it was 913 yuan, and today it has skyrocketed by 24 yuan." The sales staff in the store revealed, "During the Qingming holiday, the gold price briefly fell below 900 yuan, but it has maintained an increase of about 10 yuan almost every day in the past few days." "
At present, there is an endless stream of consumers consulting and buying in front of the investment gold bar counter, and at the same time, there is also a queue of customers waiting to be realized at the gold repurchase office. "Recently, there has been a lot of activity in the buying and selling of investment gold bars, with both new investors entering the market and many existing customers choosing to take profits." The salesperson introduced.
Judging from the data released on the official websites of major gold jewelry brands, the current gold price rise is even more amazing: the price of Chow Sang Sheng's pure gold jewelry has reached 991 yuan/gram, Chow Tai Fook and Liuliufu's pure gold 999 jewelry are 990 yuan/gram, and Saturday Fu's pure gold 999.9 is breaking through the 1,000 yuan mark, reporting 1010 yuan/gram, a single-day increase of about 30 yuan. The sales staff of Lukfook Jewellery said: "Although there is now a discount of 60 yuan per gram, the actual price is still more than 1,000 yuan per gram after adding the processing fee. "
International: Rose above $3,200 for the first time
The international gold price has continued to refresh historical records recently, showing an accelerated upward trend. From April 9 to 10, spot gold climbed sharply for two consecutive trading days, recording significant gains of 3.36% and 3% respectively, closing at $3175.25 per ounce on the 10th. After the opening of the market on the 11th, gold prices continued their strong performance, hitting a new high of $3237.56 per ounce during the session, a one-day increase of 1.19%. It is worth noting that from breaking through $3,100 to standing above the $3,200 mark, it took only more than ten days for gold prices to rise nearly 22% during the year.
Market data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, international and domestic gold prices will rise simultaneously, with an increase of more than 17%. After the international gold price successfully exceeded 3,100 US dollars / ounce at the end of March, the market showed violent fluctuations in April. Taking London spot gold as an example, after hitting an all-time high of $3,167 per ounce on April 3, it pulled back below $3,000 for three consecutive trading days, but then rebounded strongly on the 9th, rising more than 3% in a single day, and continued to rise on the 10th, regaining a firm foothold at the $3,100 mark.
Analysts pointed out that the breakthrough of gold prices through the $3,200 mark was mainly driven by three factors: first, the US March CPI data released on the 10th fell more than expected, strengthening the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June; Second, despite the Trump administration's announcement to postpone tariffs on most countries, global trade policy uncertainty remains high, which continues to push up safe-haven demand. Finally, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives agreed on the "tax cut legislation" budget, which triggered a wave of U.S. bond selling, coupled with the sharp decline in U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar index, and the rapid cooling of market risk appetite, all of which provided a strong impetus for gold prices to rise.
The central bank's demand for gold purchases provided strong support
Central bank buying has steadily accounted for 24% of the gold market since 2022, well above the average for 2010-2021, when it accounted for just 7-10% of net US Treasury bond issuance over the same period.
Moreover, since the fourth quarter of 2022, central bank gold demand has been increasing at a rate of about US$70 billion per year, significantly higher than the US$23 billion per year in the 2012-2021 period.
The report notes that the significant increase in central bank purchases means that the official sector is playing an increasingly important role in the formation of gold prices, signaling that the gold market has entered a "new normal" dominated by official demand.
It is worth noting that according to the World Gold Council and Metals There is a huge and widening gap between central bank purchases and data reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As of the fourth quarter of 2024, the cumulative gap has reached 3,495 tonnes, up from 2,680 tonnes a year ago. In Q4 alone, unreported purchases amounted to 262t, the third highest quarter since 2022, suggesting that actual central bank purchases could be much larger than publicly available.
Although gold prices may fluctuate in the short term, Jingtai believes that the core factors supporting gold prices (including Fed policy shift expectations, geopolitical risks, and a weaker US dollar) remain solid, and the room for correction is limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the strong support level near $2,800 and lay out in batches on dips.
