After nine years, Musk's "flying sports car" finally flew out of the PPT.

Last week, Tesla unveiled the second-generation Roadster at SpaceX's Texas test site, demonstrating airborne, rolling, and overtaking vehicles live — a scene that truly resembled a sci-fi movie. But as an investment analyst, I have to pour cold water on it first: the launch event was explosive, but the stock price didn't buy it—on October 16, Tesla closed down 2.13% at $354.72, down more than 7% for the week, wiping out over $93 billion in market value.

Why? Because the capital market sees very clearly: this is a showcase of engineering strength, not a turning point for commercialization.

| Three versions, one truth: those who can fly can't make it on the road, and those who can travel can't

Tesla has split the Roadster into three versions, but the "pitfall" lies in the version differences:

Currently, the Performance version available to Chinese users does not have thrusters and cannot fly; The two versions that could fly either couldn't hit the road or were simply impossible to book.

More importantly, Musk has confirmed that mass production will begin in 2028—a full 11 years since its debut in 2017. The official has yet to announce the final price for any version.

| The technology is indeed hardcore, but its commercial value is limited

It must be admitted that Tesla's technology demonstration this time was genuine:

SpaceX Cooled Propulsion System: 10 thrusters + 600-liter compressed air tank, peak thrust over 80 kN, no fuel combustion required.

Underbody fan suction system: generates 2G downforce, allowing the car to hang upside down on slopes even when stationary.

Fully drive-by-wire chassis: steering, braking, and throttle are fully electronic, paving the way for autonomous driving.

But the problem is that these technologies are difficult to monetize in the short term. Analysts generally estimate annual sales of only about 2,000 units for the Roadster, making it a typical "halo car" — designed to show off muscle and boost the brand rather than contributing revenue.

Moreover, once the vehicle is off the ground, the FAA will classify it as an aircraft, making airworthiness certification a long and expensive hurdle. He Xiaopeng also bluntly stated: "No one can bypass flight certification; globally, this is a long-term task." ”

|Musk's true intention: to promote Robotaxi and Optimus

The Roadster's return is more like a footnote to Tesla's strategic shift rather than its main character.

At the launch event, Musk confirmed that the Roadster will be the last Tesla model to retain manual driving. Meanwhile, Model S and Model X have been discontinued, and factory capacity is being converted to produce Optimus humanoid robots.

Tesla's true valuation anchor is no longer just selling cars, but autonomous driving software + Robotaxi fleet + humanoid robots. The role of the Roadster is to prove with its ultimate engineering capability that "what Tesla can do, others cannot," thereby endorsing these high-valuation narratives.

Kingtech Perspective | The battle between brand premium and capital patience

The Roadster is Tesla's "totem" for showing off its muscles, not a savior. For long-term investors, it is proof of Tesla's technological reserves and brand appeal, with firm holding logic unchanged; For short-term traders, be aware of the risk of sentiment pullback after the press conference and avoid blindly chasing highs.

1. Short-term: The press conference has all the positive news, but the earnings report is key
. Tesla will release its Q3 earnings after market close on October 21. The market focuses on Robotaxi progress, profit margin performance, and capital expenditures. Roadster contributes almost nothing to short-term performance, so don't expect it to drive the stock price.

2. Mid-term: Focus on the commercialization of Robotaxi
Tesla's current market value is $1.4 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 328 times, and its valuation already includes significant expectations for AI and autonomous driving. If Robotaxi is delayed in scaling up, high valuations will face pressure.

3. Long-term: The technology reserves are worth tracking, but don't overestimate
the space-grade propulsion and active airflow control technologies showcased by the Roadster; they may be extended to other product lines in the future. But from an investment perspective, waiting for mass production in 2028 to deal with it. Paying the 332,000 yuan intent deposit now is better to keep the money in the account for better buying opportunities.